Are you filling out a bracket?
Who do you have in the Final Four?
Whether you like College Basketball or not, you may be filling out a bracket. In fact, you may not even like sports or know what the bracket is for, but you're still filling one out.
i asked my wife if she would fill one out and she said "But i don't know any of the teams"
It doesn't matter really. In fact, it is often the person who has no clue who beats the person who studies and studies the bracket.
Some people- like my friend Ben- picks team based on the mascot, who he thinks would win if they got into a fight.
One year, i had a friend pick based on the most Christian (though not necessarily Christian schools). She had Temple vs Holy Cross in the Final. And she had the Duke Blue devils (#1 overall) losing in the first round...
Others may pick based on favorite colors... or maybe if they have friends who went to a school (i've done that for tie-breakers).
And of course, they give you the seedings, and if you just pick the favorite every time, you'll do pretty well... but you won't get them all right.
And somtimes, those people win it all.
But picking your bracket isn't just luck. There is some skill.
So, here are some tips
First of all the easiest/best way is to watch every game and study everything... but who has time to do that. Not even the so-called "Experts" do- which is why they get so much wrong... but the more exposure you have, the better... Still, this is just for fun... but the most fun is winning it all.
i have been pretty good at picking bracktes, though sometimes my loyalties get me in trouble.
So, here are my tips
1. Pick your Final Four first.
You get more points in further rounds. So, you want to be too daring with the teams at the end. Picking upsets will get you some bragging rights at the beginning, but is quite risky when you're risking big points at the end
2. Think thru your top teams first, list them all out... then look at the match-ups. Match-ups of course are important. A team could beat 63 teams in tourney, but the wrong match-up and they're done.
Ranking the teams
1. Coaching/programs
College sports is more about the coach than the players. That's why the players aren't paid and the coaches get paid millions. There are just some coaches that always win in the tourney and others who just can't coach in the tournament. Some will eventually get their break, but...
for the record, some of the best include
a. Tom Izzo
b. Rick Pitino
c. Tubby Smith (not in this year)
d. Rick Majerus (not in this year)
others: Steve Fisher (even if folks say he can't coach), Matt Painter, Steve Lavin... and though i hate to admit it... Coach K
2. A Super-star to carry a team
Miles Simon, Christian Laetnner, Carmelo, John Wallace, Bryce Drew, Stephen Curry, Magic, Larry Bird... these are the legends...
This year? Jimmer... Kemba... Sullinger
3. Guard-play... especially the point guard
You got to avoid turn-overs... you will face pressure... You need someone who can handle the ball and distribute the ball... and who can defend the ball
3b. Shooters
Since your best shooters are normally your guards, and you good guard play means shooting well, i'll put this as 3b... b/c other people need to shoot well too. You need to be able to hit shots- not just dunks and drives. And 3 point shooting comes up BIG in the tourney. Teams tend to live & die by the 3... look for good 3-pt shooting teams to advance to the sweet 16... then run dry
4. Team Defense
Offense gets all the play, but defense wins championships... always, in all sports
5. Senior Leadership
You don't get much of this anymore, but it is still vital. Senior tend to be more hungry, but also more composed. They hit their free-throws, they cover their assignments, they block out, they don't turn the ball over or make stupid mistakes... and they lead!
6. Midwest is Best
i am biased... but teams from the midwest tend to be more about the fundamental and more tough... which means, better shooters, better defense, better team play
7. Record... especially in the last 3 weeks
It doesn't really matter if you play an easy schedule, you still have to win. And winning a lot produces a culture of winning. You get used to winning. And if a team has built up some momentum, all the better
Bracket tips
1. a 12 seed always beats a 5 seed. Always! It has happened 23 out of 26 years. That is crazy.
2. 7/10 seeds will likely split... and one or two of those teams will beat the #2 seed
3. 8/9 is a draw. There will be some really good teams there... and really could be one of the top 12 teams, but beating a #1 is hard
4. At least one 10 seed or lower will make it to the sweet 16... usually it seems like a 12 vs 13 happens in rd 2
5. Make a couple set of picks..
i will be making a couple different set of picks... but
here is the one i'll share here
Final Four
1. Purdue
2. Ohio St
3. Pit
4. UConn
Elite 8
5. L'ville
6. MSU
7. Duke
8. Washington
Sweet 16
9. BYU
10. SanDiego State
11. Kansas
12. Notre Dame
13. Xavier
14. Arizona
15. K-St
16. Princeton
i'm least sure about Arizona & K-st - they're both 5 seeds... i could see Wisconsin, Belmont or K-St... and maybe even Utah St getting that spot in the Southwest... they're all good & all have their faults...
i don't like Princeton that much (though i do think Harvard had a case for an at-large bid). And i don't really want to put Notre Dame in there( but that is more of a i don't like Notre Dame thing).
While people say the Southwest is the easiest bracket, i think it is one of the most difficult. i already talked about the 4/5/12/13 seeds. but...
i really like St Johns, but i like BYU better. i really like BYU, but i like MSU better-slightly. i would have been content with any of those 3 in my Elite 8
i actually also would have picked Butler or Old Dominion for the Sweet 16... but they play each other, then Pit... yes, in that bracket, i rate them like this (Overall): Pit (3), MSU(5), BYU (6), Butler (11), St Johns (12), Old Dominion (14), Wisc (15), K-St (17), Belmont (20)... oh and Florida, the #2 seed (my 32).
Showing posts with label Purdue basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Purdue basketball. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Mook vs MSU
Losing TWO straight to end the season is never a good way to start the tournament season. Especially, when they are to two subpar teams.
One and Done in the Big Ten Conference Championship, i hope that is not a sign of things to come for the Boilermakers.
Purdue has gone from a potential #1 seed to a potential #4 seed in a week.
Seriously.
How does that happen?
Well, you lose to one of the worst teams in the nation in Iowa. And you don't show up in the conference championships.
A win against Iowa and they are #4... they get to the championship game against Ohio st and they probably have the #1 seed after Notre Dame lost already.
Now?
Well, UConn has gone from a #5 seed to a potential #2 seed with wins over Georgetown, Pitt & Syracuse. The fact those games were close will make them seem even better.
The Big East is proving how good they are.
Meanwhile the ACC looks WEAK. 3 teams in may be generous. (Still they'll probably get 5).
BIG10? Well #2  lost, #1 barely won, and that Illinois team which was supposed to be good in the preseason looks more and more like an NIT team...but i still think the B1G is perhaps the toughest league...
So, instead of being #4... they may be a #4 seed. And the way teams have been playing this year i think a #13 seed will beat a #4 seed this year. (i think teams seed 8-13 are all pretty even).
The game may have shown more of how good Michigan State is than how bad Purdue is.
MSU is one of those teams i never count out come tourney time. And though they looked like a borderline bubble team, they look like they're definitely in now.
And that they could be a team to be reckoned with.
Don't let their record fool you.
Their losses include
1. UConn (by 3 on neutral court)
2. Duke (by 5 at Duke)
3. Syracuse (in NY)
4. Texas
5. @ Ohio st
6. 2 losses to Purdue
7. @ wisconsin (Where no one wins)
8. and 2 close losses to a Michigan team that looks like a tough tourney team too.
Kalin Lucas has been healing all season.
Korie Luscious was kicked off the team and they had to adjust.
And they are historically a team who does better in the tourney than the regular season.
They still have Lucas, Draymond Green & Durrel Summers... and let's not forget: Tom Izzo
Depending on match-ups i have them at least going to the Elite 8
(Purdue, Ohio st, BYU, Pit, L'ville, MSU, SD St, UConn, Butler, St Johns, Duke & Kansas are my top 12... followed by an A-10 team, a Colonial team, K-St, Wisconsin...)
One and Done in the Big Ten Conference Championship, i hope that is not a sign of things to come for the Boilermakers.
Purdue has gone from a potential #1 seed to a potential #4 seed in a week.
Seriously.
How does that happen?
Well, you lose to one of the worst teams in the nation in Iowa. And you don't show up in the conference championships.
A win against Iowa and they are #4... they get to the championship game against Ohio st and they probably have the #1 seed after Notre Dame lost already.
Now?
Well, UConn has gone from a #5 seed to a potential #2 seed with wins over Georgetown, Pitt & Syracuse. The fact those games were close will make them seem even better.
The Big East is proving how good they are.
Meanwhile the ACC looks WEAK. 3 teams in may be generous. (Still they'll probably get 5).
BIG10? Well #2  lost, #1 barely won, and that Illinois team which was supposed to be good in the preseason looks more and more like an NIT team...but i still think the B1G is perhaps the toughest league...
So, instead of being #4... they may be a #4 seed. And the way teams have been playing this year i think a #13 seed will beat a #4 seed this year. (i think teams seed 8-13 are all pretty even).
The game may have shown more of how good Michigan State is than how bad Purdue is.
MSU is one of those teams i never count out come tourney time. And though they looked like a borderline bubble team, they look like they're definitely in now.
And that they could be a team to be reckoned with.
Don't let their record fool you.
Their losses include
1. UConn (by 3 on neutral court)
2. Duke (by 5 at Duke)
3. Syracuse (in NY)
4. Texas
5. @ Ohio st
6. 2 losses to Purdue
7. @ wisconsin (Where no one wins)
8. and 2 close losses to a Michigan team that looks like a tough tourney team too.
Kalin Lucas has been healing all season.
Korie Luscious was kicked off the team and they had to adjust.
And they are historically a team who does better in the tourney than the regular season.
They still have Lucas, Draymond Green & Durrel Summers... and let's not forget: Tom Izzo
Depending on match-ups i have them at least going to the Elite 8
(Purdue, Ohio st, BYU, Pit, L'ville, MSU, SD St, UConn, Butler, St Johns, Duke & Kansas are my top 12... followed by an A-10 team, a Colonial team, K-St, Wisconsin...)
Monday, March 7, 2011
Mook vs Iowa/Purdue
When i saw Purdue was playing Iowa, i didn't even care anymore. i wasn't going to check if they were on tv, i wasn't going to worry about checking the score. i wasn't going to bother. It was in the bag.
Apparently, the Boilers felt the same way... and thus... a major letdown.
Even when i stumbled upon the game and saw it was tied at half-time, i didn't care... Purdue will take over in the 2nd half... but then i looked to see if there were any upsets going on... and sure enough, there was... with 3:34 left in the game i turned on ESPN3 to watch the end of the game.
And it was a disaster.
Purdue did not look poised.
Smooge was nowhere to be seen.
And the shots looked ugly.
Iowa got the bounces they needed, and Purdue couldn't complete a comeback.
And the Iowa faithful stormed the court.
It's kinda nice to be good enough that when a team beats you the fans storm the court...
but this may have been more about how awful Iowa had been. It was their first win over a ranked opponent in 3 years... and only their 4th big10 win all season.
So, though Iowa had played Ohio st and Wisconsin tough- this was a game Purdue should have won.
Some thoughts - based on the last 3:34
1. Again, i don't understand why they were shooting so many 3-pointers at the end of the game- much like the Minnesota game. At least against Minnesota you could say they had some big big men.
But it's just like they panic and feel they need to come back quickly. They were only down 4 and had 3+ minutes! They should not have settled for permiter shots, let alone 3-pointers. They could have scored quickly. They could have been poised, calm, confident, relaxed- and put all the pressure on Iowa
2. It's a bit hard to blame them for those shots though- because they were wide open. Most shots were not rushed. They often made the extra pass. But they just weren't hitting. And that's scary. For this team to advance, they need to be able to hit the open shot
3. It shouldn't matter though- because they got JJ.
JJ should be big10 player of the year. If he played in the Big East, he would have been a staple highlight on ESPN and a lottery pick last year. They need to give him the ball and let him take over. They let E'twuan Moore take over against Ohio st and score 38, they need to just pound it inside with JaJuan Johnson.
4. Another disappointing loss. A close one. These guys need to be able to win the close ones. They coulda beat Minnesota, West Virgina, Wisconsin and now Iowa. If they can't win close games, how will they win in the tournament.
The sad part about this loss, was with Duke losing and BYU earlier in the week, Purdue could have- would have been rated #4 in the nation... a # 1 seed was there for them- with just a close game against Ohio St... Now they'll have to win the tourney just to get a #2.
i'm ok with a #2 seed.
My top teams to win it (not necessarily at this moment) are
1. Ohio st
2. Pit
3. BYU
4. Purdue
yes, i'm a bit of a homer. They may be more realistically an Elite 8 team. But they are good. They got good guard play, some good shooters (most of the time), killer defense, senior leadership, and a coach who gets his team far in the tourney + 2 guys who could potentially carry the team.
i hope the game serves as a wake-up call. And they rise to the challenge again.
My hope is still a championship this season... and then Robbie comes back and leads a team with a much-improved, very good LewJack, and solid role players and get back to the Final Four again.
Go Boilers!
Apparently, the Boilers felt the same way... and thus... a major letdown.
Even when i stumbled upon the game and saw it was tied at half-time, i didn't care... Purdue will take over in the 2nd half... but then i looked to see if there were any upsets going on... and sure enough, there was... with 3:34 left in the game i turned on ESPN3 to watch the end of the game.
And it was a disaster.
Purdue did not look poised.
Smooge was nowhere to be seen.
And the shots looked ugly.
Iowa got the bounces they needed, and Purdue couldn't complete a comeback.
And the Iowa faithful stormed the court.
It's kinda nice to be good enough that when a team beats you the fans storm the court...
but this may have been more about how awful Iowa had been. It was their first win over a ranked opponent in 3 years... and only their 4th big10 win all season.
So, though Iowa had played Ohio st and Wisconsin tough- this was a game Purdue should have won.
Some thoughts - based on the last 3:34
1. Again, i don't understand why they were shooting so many 3-pointers at the end of the game- much like the Minnesota game. At least against Minnesota you could say they had some big big men.
But it's just like they panic and feel they need to come back quickly. They were only down 4 and had 3+ minutes! They should not have settled for permiter shots, let alone 3-pointers. They could have scored quickly. They could have been poised, calm, confident, relaxed- and put all the pressure on Iowa
2. It's a bit hard to blame them for those shots though- because they were wide open. Most shots were not rushed. They often made the extra pass. But they just weren't hitting. And that's scary. For this team to advance, they need to be able to hit the open shot
3. It shouldn't matter though- because they got JJ.
JJ should be big10 player of the year. If he played in the Big East, he would have been a staple highlight on ESPN and a lottery pick last year. They need to give him the ball and let him take over. They let E'twuan Moore take over against Ohio st and score 38, they need to just pound it inside with JaJuan Johnson.
4. Another disappointing loss. A close one. These guys need to be able to win the close ones. They coulda beat Minnesota, West Virgina, Wisconsin and now Iowa. If they can't win close games, how will they win in the tournament.
The sad part about this loss, was with Duke losing and BYU earlier in the week, Purdue could have- would have been rated #4 in the nation... a # 1 seed was there for them- with just a close game against Ohio St... Now they'll have to win the tourney just to get a #2.
i'm ok with a #2 seed.
My top teams to win it (not necessarily at this moment) are
1. Ohio st
2. Pit
3. BYU
4. Purdue
yes, i'm a bit of a homer. They may be more realistically an Elite 8 team. But they are good. They got good guard play, some good shooters (most of the time), killer defense, senior leadership, and a coach who gets his team far in the tourney + 2 guys who could potentially carry the team.
i hope the game serves as a wake-up call. And they rise to the challenge again.
My hope is still a championship this season... and then Robbie comes back and leads a team with a much-improved, very good LewJack, and solid role players and get back to the Final Four again.
Go Boilers!
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Mook vs a crazy college basketball season
It is not that odd for a number 1 team to lose during a week.
It's not even that odd to have a new number 1 3 weeks in a row.
But this season has been nutty!
On Saturday, The number 1, 4, 5, 10,11, 13,14, 17 & 21 teams all lost- in one day!
Plus #6 lost on Sunday... and #15, 18, 22, & 24 lost earlier in the week... that's 14 of the top 24 losing! (And a couple of those teams lost multiple times)
This is not the first time this has happened this season
The week before, the top 4 teams ALL lost during the week (plus the team i had slated as #5) + 9,10,12, 16... that is 7 of the top ten teams losing in a week!
Earlier in the season:
Maybe it's because the big East beat up on each other. Maybe there is more parity. Mid-majors can beat the big dogs. And the conferences are pretty even from top to bottom.
It looks like anyone could win this year. Ohio st looks pretty dominant. BYU has the superstar. i'm still holding out for Purdue. They got the Senior leadership, the good coach, great defense, amazing guard play, a couple guys who can take a game over... Robbie Hummel or not, they are still poised to make a championship run.
It has been a fun college basketball season. i hope they let some small school into the tourney (With good seedings)- like Butler, Valpo, Cleveland State, Witchita St, VCU, Old Dominion, Missouri St, George Mason, Richmond - and see what they can do... and i hope the BigTen still gets represented well - if MSU gets in, i'd still say they have a great chance at sweet 16 and even Elite 8.
i love sports. i love college basketball!
It's not even that odd to have a new number 1 3 weeks in a row.
But this season has been nutty!
On Saturday, The number 1, 4, 5, 10,11, 13,14, 17 & 21 teams all lost- in one day!
Plus #6 lost on Sunday... and #15, 18, 22, & 24 lost earlier in the week... that's 14 of the top 24 losing! (And a couple of those teams lost multiple times)
This is not the first time this has happened this season
The week before, the top 4 teams ALL lost during the week (plus the team i had slated as #5) + 9,10,12, 16... that is 7 of the top ten teams losing in a week!
Earlier in the season:
a #2, #3, #4, #5,#8,#9,#10,#11,#12,#13,#16, #17,#19,#20, #22, #24, #25 all lost
that's 17 of 25
4 of the top 5
7 of the top 10
10/13
14/20
Maybe it's because the big East beat up on each other. Maybe there is more parity. Mid-majors can beat the big dogs. And the conferences are pretty even from top to bottom.
It looks like anyone could win this year. Ohio st looks pretty dominant. BYU has the superstar. i'm still holding out for Purdue. They got the Senior leadership, the good coach, great defense, amazing guard play, a couple guys who can take a game over... Robbie Hummel or not, they are still poised to make a championship run.
It has been a fun college basketball season. i hope they let some small school into the tourney (With good seedings)- like Butler, Valpo, Cleveland State, Witchita St, VCU, Old Dominion, Missouri St, George Mason, Richmond - and see what they can do... and i hope the BigTen still gets represented well - if MSU gets in, i'd still say they have a great chance at sweet 16 and even Elite 8.
i love sports. i love college basketball!
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Mook vs Robbie Hummel
The biggest sports story of the day was not #1 Ohio St losing... not the Rangers finally winning a playoff game at home and evening the Yankees... not the pitcher's duel in Philadelphia that turned into a HR derby... the biggest news for me... was Robbie Hummel tearing his ACL again and ending his season.
First practice of the season, and Purdue's #1 player is gone for the season.
As a freshman, Hummel was a player of the year candidate and led the Baby Boilers to the tournament. They were supposed to be exciting with potential & promise, but were leading the big10 deep into the season. The following season they won the conference tournament and made the sweet 16.
Last year the Boilers looked like a lock for big10 champs and a possible #1 overall seed - after not only dominating the big10, but beating Tennessee (The team that beat both Kentucky & Kansas) an annihilating #6 West Virginia by 20+
Then Hummel got hurt... they became a 4 seed. They shocked the world by beating Siena and making the sweet 16. They were tied with Duke late into the game- the eventual champions.
This was going to be the year. 3 Seniors, a lot of talent... Actually last year was supposed to be the year - the Final four was in Indy... now what?
Andy Katz wrote this story.
But i guess this is normal for a Purdue fan.
A few years ago, Purdue football was up to #5. Kyle Orton looked like the heisman winner. Gameday came to West Lafayette and we were cruising against Wisconsin, then everything fell apart. We lost 3 in a row, all in the last 2 minutes of the game, all by less than 3 points. The record at the end of the season was horrible.
The basketball team has been cursed before, with G Rob getting hurt in the tourney his last season... cursed we are.
Still, let's not lose hope.
Though Katz has dropped Purdue from 2 to 23, and the majority of nation (including the state of Indian) think they're not even a top 25 team! a lot of us think this Purdue team can still compete
My friend Ryan wrote this post at boiled sports and this article from the bleacher report.
Purdue is still talented with JJ & Moore. 2 Solid Seniors. They have a great coach. And they're used to being the underdog. It's disappointing. i don't have as much hope as before, but i'm not giving up on them.
First practice of the season, and Purdue's #1 player is gone for the season.
As a freshman, Hummel was a player of the year candidate and led the Baby Boilers to the tournament. They were supposed to be exciting with potential & promise, but were leading the big10 deep into the season. The following season they won the conference tournament and made the sweet 16.
Last year the Boilers looked like a lock for big10 champs and a possible #1 overall seed - after not only dominating the big10, but beating Tennessee (The team that beat both Kentucky & Kansas) an annihilating #6 West Virginia by 20+
Then Hummel got hurt... they became a 4 seed. They shocked the world by beating Siena and making the sweet 16. They were tied with Duke late into the game- the eventual champions.
This was going to be the year. 3 Seniors, a lot of talent... Actually last year was supposed to be the year - the Final four was in Indy... now what?
Andy Katz wrote this story.
But i guess this is normal for a Purdue fan.
A few years ago, Purdue football was up to #5. Kyle Orton looked like the heisman winner. Gameday came to West Lafayette and we were cruising against Wisconsin, then everything fell apart. We lost 3 in a row, all in the last 2 minutes of the game, all by less than 3 points. The record at the end of the season was horrible.
The basketball team has been cursed before, with G Rob getting hurt in the tourney his last season... cursed we are.
Still, let's not lose hope.
Though Katz has dropped Purdue from 2 to 23, and the majority of nation (including the state of Indian) think they're not even a top 25 team! a lot of us think this Purdue team can still compete
My friend Ryan wrote this post at boiled sports and this article from the bleacher report.
Purdue is still talented with JJ & Moore. 2 Solid Seniors. They have a great coach. And they're used to being the underdog. It's disappointing. i don't have as much hope as before, but i'm not giving up on them.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)