Showing posts with label March Madness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label March Madness. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Mook vs Tourney Picks

Are you filling out a bracket?
Who do you have in the Final Four?

Whether you like College Basketball or not, you may be filling out a bracket. In fact, you may not even like sports or know what the bracket is for, but you're still filling one out.

i asked my wife if she would fill one out and she said "But i don't know any of the teams"

It doesn't matter really. In fact, it is often the person who has no clue who beats the person who studies and studies the bracket.

Some people- like my friend Ben- picks team based on the mascot, who he thinks would win if they got into a fight.

One year, i had a friend pick based on the most Christian (though not necessarily Christian schools). She had Temple vs Holy Cross in the Final. And she had the Duke Blue devils (#1 overall) losing in the first round...

Others may pick based on favorite colors... or maybe if they have friends who went to a school (i've done that for tie-breakers).

And of course, they give you the seedings, and if you just pick the favorite every time, you'll do pretty well... but you won't get them all right.

And somtimes, those people win it all.


But picking your bracket isn't just luck. There is some skill.
So, here are some tips

First of all the easiest/best way is to watch every game and study everything... but who has time to do that. Not even the so-called "Experts" do- which is why they get so much wrong... but the more exposure you have, the better...  Still, this is just for fun... but the most fun is winning it all.

i have been pretty good at picking bracktes, though sometimes my loyalties get me in trouble.
So, here are my tips

1. Pick your Final Four first.
     You get more points in further rounds. So, you want to be too daring with the teams at the end. Picking upsets will get you some bragging rights at the beginning, but is quite risky when you're risking big points at the end

2. Think thru your top teams first, list them all out... then look at the match-ups. Match-ups of course are important. A team could beat 63 teams in tourney, but the wrong match-up and they're done.

Ranking the teams

1. Coaching/programs
    College sports is more about the coach than the players. That's why the players aren't paid and the coaches get paid millions. There are just some coaches that always win in the tourney and others who just can't coach in the tournament. Some will eventually get their break, but...
for the record, some of the best include
    a. Tom Izzo
    b. Rick Pitino
    c. Tubby Smith (not in this year)
    d. Rick Majerus (not in this year)
    others: Steve Fisher (even if folks say he can't coach), Matt Painter, Steve Lavin... and though i hate to admit it... Coach K

2. A Super-star to carry a team
   Miles Simon, Christian Laetnner, Carmelo, John Wallace, Bryce Drew, Stephen Curry, Magic, Larry Bird... these are the legends...
   This year? Jimmer... Kemba... Sullinger

3. Guard-play... especially the point guard
   You got to avoid turn-overs... you will face pressure... You need someone who can handle the ball and distribute the ball... and who can defend the ball

3b. Shooters
    Since your best shooters are normally your guards, and you good guard play means shooting well, i'll put this as 3b... b/c other people need to shoot well too. You need to be able to hit shots- not just dunks and drives. And 3 point shooting comes up BIG in the tourney. Teams tend to live & die by the 3... look for good 3-pt shooting teams to advance to the sweet 16... then run dry

4. Team Defense
    Offense gets all the play, but defense wins championships... always, in all sports

5. Senior Leadership
    You don't get much of this anymore, but it is still vital. Senior tend to be more hungry, but also more composed. They hit their free-throws, they cover their assignments, they block out, they don't turn the ball over or make stupid mistakes... and they lead!


6. Midwest is Best
    i am biased... but teams from the midwest tend to be more about the fundamental and more tough... which means, better shooters, better defense, better team play


7. Record... especially in the last 3 weeks
   It doesn't really matter if you play an easy schedule, you still have to win. And winning a lot produces a culture of winning. You get used to winning. And if a team has built up some momentum, all the better


Bracket tips

1. a 12 seed always beats a 5 seed. Always! It has happened 23 out of 26 years. That is crazy.
2. 7/10 seeds will likely split... and one or two of those teams will beat the #2 seed
3. 8/9 is a draw. There will be some really good teams there... and really could be one of the top 12 teams, but beating a #1 is hard
4. At least one 10 seed or lower will make it to the sweet 16... usually it seems like a 12 vs 13 happens in rd 2
5. Make a couple set of picks..


i will be making a couple different set of picks... but
here is the one i'll share here

Final Four
1. Purdue
2. Ohio St
3. Pit
4. UConn
Elite 8
5. L'ville
6. MSU
7. Duke
8. Washington
Sweet 16
9. BYU
10. SanDiego State
11. Kansas
12. Notre Dame
13. Xavier
14. Arizona
15. K-St
16. Princeton


i'm least sure about Arizona & K-st - they're both 5 seeds... i could see Wisconsin, Belmont or K-St... and maybe even Utah St getting that spot in the Southwest... they're all good & all have their faults...

i don't like Princeton that much (though i do think Harvard had a case for an at-large bid). And i don't really want to put Notre Dame in there( but that is more of a i don't like Notre Dame thing).

While people say the Southwest is the easiest bracket, i think it is one of the most difficult. i already talked about the 4/5/12/13 seeds. but...
i really like St Johns, but i like BYU better. i really like BYU, but i like MSU better-slightly. i would have been content with any of those 3 in my Elite 8

i actually also would have picked Butler or Old Dominion for the Sweet 16... but they play each other, then Pit... yes, in that bracket, i rate them like this (Overall): Pit (3), MSU(5), BYU (6), Butler (11), St Johns (12), Old Dominion (14), Wisc (15), K-St (17), Belmont (20)... oh and Florida, the #2 seed (my 32).

Monday, March 14, 2011

Mook vs the Bracktes


As a Purdue fan, I’m pretty happy with our seeding.
It is a pretty tough bracket for Kansas… some real good teams in there… but I’m not afraid of any of them as a Purdue fan.

As a fan of upsets, I’m a lil upset. I don’t like Belmont drawing Wisconsin… I don’t like Butler & Old Dominion playing in the 1st round or the fact they and George Mason got the hated 8/9 seeds.
MSU as a ten seed who’d have to play an over-seeded Florida looks poised to make another run…

·      Colorado has a legitimate gripe- if UAB, Clemson, Georgia get in
·      I don’t know how Georgia is a ten seed and Bama is not in at all
·      Though I wouldn’t take any of those teams…
·      If I were picking
o   OUT: Georgia, Clemson, UAB, USC
o   IN: Milwaukee, Harvard, Valpo, St Mary’s
o   My First Four Out: Colorado, CSU, Missouri St, Clev St
·      Toughest games for me to pick
o   Wisc vs Belmont
§  I like Wisc as a sweet 16, but Belmont was my first round upset pick
§  K-st/Utah St vs Wisc/Belmont… this is what makes the pick so hard… I could see any of those 4 teams in the sweet 16… well, I could see the 12 & 13 teams both pulling upsets in rd 1… and if they’re playing in rd 2, one of those teams will make it…
o   BYU vs St Johns, BYU/St Johns vs MSU
§  MSU is getting to the sweet 16, can they make it all the way to 8…
§  I like Steve Lavin & Gene Keady to make it to the sweet 16…
§  but this whole year I have been touting Jimmer to carry his team… and while losing Davies hurts, I still want to pick them to the sweet 16 at least
§  I think St John’s got screwed, they should have been a 5 seed at least
o   L’ville vs Kansas (Rd 3)
§  I don’t think Kansas will lose so quickly this year, there is still a lot of talent there, I don’t have them in the final four, but I think they’ll be motivated… but I always pick Pitino’s teams to get to the Elite 8 or Final Four
o   SD St vs UConn (Rd 3)
§  I want to pick Steve Fisher and SD st to the final 8, and I want to pick UConn to the Final 8… one is going to lose… and the other will make the Final Four
·      Teams most screwed
o   8/9 seeds suck. I would rather be a 10 or 11 or 12
§  Butler: first they play Old Dominion, then they’d play Pit
§  George Mason: they win and have to play Ohio St
§  Old Dominion: see Butler
§  Michigan/Tenn  too
o   St Johns: a 6 seed? Playing Gonzaga first… then BYU
o   Texas as a 4 seed: I don’t like Texas, but they deserved better
·      Generous seedings
o   Florida as a 2, while Kentucky is a 4… I thought they’d both be 3’s… with Kentucky getting the edge
o   WV as a 5, while St johns is a 6
o   Penn St as a ten… I thought they were a bubble team
o   Georgia is a ten, I didn’t think they deserved to be in at all!
·      Interesting match-ups
o   Illinois could play UNLV, then Kansas… coached by former coach Lon Kruger and the guy who took over former coach Bill Self
o   Memphis is coached by former Arizona coach
o   Kentucky vs Princeton matches fast vs slow
o   Temple and Penn st play for pride of Pennsylvania
o   Notre Dame vs Purdue in rd 3 a rivalry in Indiana, that Notre Dame has been avoiding
o   Louisville vs Kansas, 2 top programs (rd 3)
·      If it were me I’d create the bracket with match-ups in mind
·      1st rd games I’m most interested in
o   Purdue vs St Peters (of course)
o   Kentucky vs Princeton
o   Butler vs old Dominion
o   St Johns vs Gonzaga
o   UCLA vs MSU
o   Texas vs Oakland
o   Syracuse vs ISU
o   Richmond vs Vandy
o   Michigan vs Tenn
o   Wisc vs Belmont
o   Arizona vs Memphis

i'll be back with predictions tomorrow

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Mook vs Selection Sunday


Get excited.
Today is Selection Sunday.
What is Selection Sunday?
Well, it should be a holiday. It should be marked in calendars.
It is mine.

Selection Sunday is the day the brackets are produced. It is the day when certain teams are selected to play in the NCAA tournament, also known as March Madness. And others are not.
It is a particulary fun day for teams on the Bubble and small schools.

The Bubble are teams that may or may not make the tourament. Usualy there are a good ten teams on the bubble with 4-5 making the tourney and 4-5 missing the tourney.

It can all be seen on CBS.

It is also the day seedings are finally revealed and match-ups are made.
We know certain teams will be in, what we don’t know is what they will be seeded. And though we have a good idea about some seedings, we still have no idea who will be placed in which region and what the match-ups will be….

It is a day that creates heart-aches and a day which creates head-aches… as we all try to pick our brackets.

I always have a list of teams I think should make it to the Final Four and Elite 8 and Sweet 16, well before the brackets are produced… but it is rare the seedings work out for me… L

It will be interesting to see what will happen today.
ISU and Butler are in because they won their conference championships… but where will they be seeded?
How about a team like Belmont?
Will anyone else from the Horizon get in?

Personally, I think
·      Valpo
·      Milwaukee
·      Virg Cm
·      Missouri St
·      St Mary’s
Should all get in
And teams like
·      Va Tech
·      Clemson
·      Georgia
·      Bama
·      Colorado
Should be left out

One reason people love the College Basketball Tourney is everyone gets a chance (unlike College Football).
But there is still a bias towards the top conferences and big schools.
Sometimes deservedly so.
But if teams play a good enough schedule, they will get seeded high (like BYU & SD st this season) but if not, they’ll still barely make it or be on the Bubble (like Utah St or Missouri St).

We’ll see what happens today.
Big East should dominate, B1G (BigTen) should get a number of teams too. I don’t think the ACC or SEC should get many, but they probably will. The Colonial (Old Dominion, George Mason, Virg Commonwealth) and Horizon (Butler, Milwaukee, Valpo, Clev St) should get more, but not get many. Atlantic10 at points moved into the upper echelon, but likely will be stuck with 3 seeds, but probably doesn’t deserve more either.

I’m hoping for brackets that can produce a Final Four of
1.     Purdue
2.     Ohio St
3.     Pit
4.     BYU or Louisville
And an Elite 8 of
5.     BYU/L’ville
6.     MSU
7.     UConn
8.     SD St
And a sweet 16 that could include
a bunch of small schools like Butler, OD, GM, Zaga, Richmond, ISU, Belmont…

March Maddness has already been MADD

I turned on the last 3 minutes to see St Johns and Rutgers and saw a crazy finish with the worst officiating ever. I saw the last few seconds of UConn vs Pit, which ended with a shot at the buzzer by Kemba Walker. Then last night saw the last 4 minutes of Washington and Arizona, which ended in a barrage of 3-pointers by Washington to get them to over-time, then a 3pointer by Arizona to tie it with just a few seconds in OT… before Isaiah Thomas nailed a jumper as time expired to win… Yes, it was a crazy week! And we haven’t even started!

I can’t wait!

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Mook vs MSU

Losing TWO straight to end the season is never a good way to start the tournament season. Especially, when they are to two subpar teams.

One and Done in the Big Ten Conference Championship, i hope that is not a sign of things to come for the Boilermakers.

Purdue has gone from a potential #1 seed to a potential #4 seed in a week.
Seriously.
How does that happen?
Well, you lose to one of the worst teams in the nation in Iowa. And you don't show up in the conference championships.
A win against Iowa and they are #4... they get to the championship game against Ohio st and they probably have the #1 seed after Notre Dame lost already.

Now?
Well, UConn has gone from a #5 seed to a potential #2 seed with wins over Georgetown, Pitt & Syracuse. The fact those games were close will make them seem even better.
The Big East is proving how good they are.
Meanwhile the ACC looks WEAK. 3 teams in may be generous. (Still they'll probably get 5).
BIG10? Well #2 &#3 lost, #1 barely won, and that Illinois team which was supposed to be good in the preseason looks more and more like an NIT team...but i still think the B1G is perhaps the toughest league...

So, instead of being #4... they may be a #4 seed. And the way teams have been playing this year i think a #13 seed will beat a #4 seed this year. (i think teams seed 8-13 are all pretty even).


The game may have shown more of how good Michigan State is than how bad Purdue is.
MSU is one of those teams i never count out come tourney time. And though they looked like a borderline bubble team, they look like they're definitely in now.
And that they could be a team to be reckoned with.

Don't let their record fool you.
Their losses include
1. UConn (by 3 on neutral court)
2. Duke (by 5 at Duke)
3. Syracuse (in NY)
4. Texas
5. @ Ohio st
6. 2 losses to Purdue
7. @ wisconsin (Where no one wins)
8. and 2 close losses to a Michigan team that looks like a tough tourney team too.

Kalin Lucas has been healing all season.
Korie Luscious was kicked off the team and they had to adjust.
And they are historically a team who does better in the tourney than the regular season.
They still have Lucas, Draymond Green & Durrel Summers... and let's not forget: Tom Izzo

Depending on match-ups i have them at least going to the Elite 8
(Purdue, Ohio st, BYU, Pit, L'ville, MSU, SD St, UConn, Butler, St Johns, Duke & Kansas are my top 12... followed by an A-10 team, a Colonial team, K-St, Wisconsin...)

Monday, March 7, 2011

Mook vs Iowa/Purdue

When i saw Purdue was playing Iowa, i didn't even care anymore. i wasn't going to check if they were on tv, i wasn't going to worry about checking the score. i wasn't going to bother. It was in the bag.

Apparently, the Boilers felt the same way... and thus... a major letdown.

Even when i stumbled upon the game and saw it was tied at half-time, i didn't care... Purdue will take over in the 2nd half... but then i looked to see if there were any upsets going on... and sure enough, there was... with 3:34 left in the game i turned on ESPN3 to watch the end of the game.

And it was a disaster.
Purdue did not look poised.
Smooge was nowhere to be seen.
And the shots looked ugly.
Iowa got the bounces they needed, and Purdue couldn't complete a comeback.
And the Iowa faithful stormed the court.

It's kinda nice to be good enough that when a team beats you the fans storm the court...

but this may have been more about how awful Iowa had been. It was their first win over a ranked opponent in 3 years... and only their 4th big10 win all season.
So, though Iowa had played Ohio st and Wisconsin tough- this was a game Purdue should have won.

Some thoughts - based on the last 3:34

1. Again, i don't understand why they were shooting so many 3-pointers at the end of the game- much like the Minnesota game. At least against Minnesota you could say they had some big big men.
But it's just like they panic and feel they need to come back quickly. They were only down 4 and had 3+ minutes! They should not have settled for permiter shots, let alone 3-pointers. They could have scored quickly. They could have been poised, calm, confident, relaxed- and put all the pressure on Iowa

2. It's a bit hard to blame them for those shots though- because they were wide open. Most shots were not rushed. They often made the extra pass. But they just weren't hitting. And that's scary. For this team to advance, they need to be able to hit the open shot

3. It shouldn't matter though- because they got JJ.
JJ should be big10 player of the year. If he played in the Big East, he would have been a staple highlight on ESPN and a lottery pick last year. They need to give him the ball and let him take over. They let E'twuan Moore take over against Ohio st and score 38, they need to just pound it inside with JaJuan Johnson.

4. Another disappointing loss. A close one. These guys need to be able to win the close ones. They coulda beat Minnesota, West Virgina, Wisconsin and now Iowa. If they can't win close games, how will they win in the tournament.

The sad part about this loss, was with Duke losing and BYU earlier in the week, Purdue could have- would have been rated #4 in the nation... a # 1 seed was there for them- with just a close game against Ohio St... Now they'll have to win the tourney just to get a #2.
i'm ok with a #2 seed.

My top teams to win it (not necessarily at this moment) are
1. Ohio st
2. Pit
3. BYU
4. Purdue

yes, i'm a bit of a homer. They may be more realistically an Elite 8 team. But they are good. They got good guard play, some good shooters (most of the time), killer defense, senior leadership, and a coach who gets his team far in the tourney + 2 guys who could potentially carry the team.

i hope the game serves as a wake-up call. And they rise to the challenge again.
My hope is still a championship this season... and then Robbie comes back and leads a team with a much-improved, very good LewJack, and solid role players and get back to the Final Four again.

Go Boilers!

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Mook vs a crazy college basketball season

It is not that odd for a number 1 team to lose during a week.
It's not even that odd to have a new number 1 3 weeks in a row.

But this season has been nutty!

On Saturday, The number 1, 4, 5, 10,11, 13,14, 17 & 21 teams all lost- in one day!
Plus #6 lost on Sunday... and #15, 18, 22, & 24 lost earlier in the week... that's 14 of the top 24 losing! (And a couple of those teams lost multiple times)

This is not the first time this has happened this season

The week before, the top 4 teams ALL lost during the week (plus the team i had slated as #5) + 9,10,12, 16... that is 7 of the top ten teams losing in a week!

Earlier in the season:

  #2, #3, #4, #5,#8,#9,#10,#11,#12,#13,#16, #17,#19,#20, #22, #24, #25 all lost
that's     17 of 25
 4 of the top 5
7 of the top 10
10/13
14/20

Maybe it's because the big East beat up on each other. Maybe there is more parity. Mid-majors can beat the big dogs. And the conferences are pretty even from top to bottom.

It looks like anyone could win this year. Ohio st looks pretty dominant. BYU has the superstar. i'm still holding out for Purdue. They got the Senior leadership, the good coach, great defense, amazing guard play, a couple guys who can take a game over... Robbie Hummel or not, they are still poised to make a championship run.
It has been a fun college basketball season. i hope they let some small school into the tourney (With good seedings)- like Butler, Valpo, Cleveland State, Witchita St, VCU, Old Dominion, Missouri St, George Mason, Richmond - and see what they can do... and i hope the BigTen still gets represented well - if MSU gets in, i'd still say they have a great chance at sweet 16 and even Elite 8.


i love sports. i love college basketball!