Mook vs Tourney Picks

Are you filling out a bracket?
Who do you have in the Final Four?

Whether you like College Basketball or not, you may be filling out a bracket. In fact, you may not even like sports or know what the bracket is for, but you're still filling one out.

i asked my wife if she would fill one out and she said "But i don't know any of the teams"

It doesn't matter really. In fact, it is often the person who has no clue who beats the person who studies and studies the bracket.

Some people- like my friend Ben- picks team based on the mascot, who he thinks would win if they got into a fight.

One year, i had a friend pick based on the most Christian (though not necessarily Christian schools). She had Temple vs Holy Cross in the Final. And she had the Duke Blue devils (#1 overall) losing in the first round...

Others may pick based on favorite colors... or maybe if they have friends who went to a school (i've done that for tie-breakers).

And of course, they give you the seedings, and if you just pick the favorite every time, you'll do pretty well... but you won't get them all right.

And somtimes, those people win it all.


But picking your bracket isn't just luck. There is some skill.
So, here are some tips

First of all the easiest/best way is to watch every game and study everything... but who has time to do that. Not even the so-called "Experts" do- which is why they get so much wrong... but the more exposure you have, the better...  Still, this is just for fun... but the most fun is winning it all.

i have been pretty good at picking bracktes, though sometimes my loyalties get me in trouble.
So, here are my tips

1. Pick your Final Four first.
     You get more points in further rounds. So, you want to be too daring with the teams at the end. Picking upsets will get you some bragging rights at the beginning, but is quite risky when you're risking big points at the end

2. Think thru your top teams first, list them all out... then look at the match-ups. Match-ups of course are important. A team could beat 63 teams in tourney, but the wrong match-up and they're done.

Ranking the teams

1. Coaching/programs
    College sports is more about the coach than the players. That's why the players aren't paid and the coaches get paid millions. There are just some coaches that always win in the tourney and others who just can't coach in the tournament. Some will eventually get their break, but...
for the record, some of the best include
    a. Tom Izzo
    b. Rick Pitino
    c. Tubby Smith (not in this year)
    d. Rick Majerus (not in this year)
    others: Steve Fisher (even if folks say he can't coach), Matt Painter, Steve Lavin... and though i hate to admit it... Coach K

2. A Super-star to carry a team
   Miles Simon, Christian Laetnner, Carmelo, John Wallace, Bryce Drew, Stephen Curry, Magic, Larry Bird... these are the legends...
   This year? Jimmer... Kemba... Sullinger

3. Guard-play... especially the point guard
   You got to avoid turn-overs... you will face pressure... You need someone who can handle the ball and distribute the ball... and who can defend the ball

3b. Shooters
    Since your best shooters are normally your guards, and you good guard play means shooting well, i'll put this as 3b... b/c other people need to shoot well too. You need to be able to hit shots- not just dunks and drives. And 3 point shooting comes up BIG in the tourney. Teams tend to live & die by the 3... look for good 3-pt shooting teams to advance to the sweet 16... then run dry

4. Team Defense
    Offense gets all the play, but defense wins championships... always, in all sports

5. Senior Leadership
    You don't get much of this anymore, but it is still vital. Senior tend to be more hungry, but also more composed. They hit their free-throws, they cover their assignments, they block out, they don't turn the ball over or make stupid mistakes... and they lead!


6. Midwest is Best
    i am biased... but teams from the midwest tend to be more about the fundamental and more tough... which means, better shooters, better defense, better team play


7. Record... especially in the last 3 weeks
   It doesn't really matter if you play an easy schedule, you still have to win. And winning a lot produces a culture of winning. You get used to winning. And if a team has built up some momentum, all the better


Bracket tips

1. a 12 seed always beats a 5 seed. Always! It has happened 23 out of 26 years. That is crazy.
2. 7/10 seeds will likely split... and one or two of those teams will beat the #2 seed
3. 8/9 is a draw. There will be some really good teams there... and really could be one of the top 12 teams, but beating a #1 is hard
4. At least one 10 seed or lower will make it to the sweet 16... usually it seems like a 12 vs 13 happens in rd 2
5. Make a couple set of picks..


i will be making a couple different set of picks... but
here is the one i'll share here

Final Four
1. Purdue
2. Ohio St
3. Pit
4. UConn
Elite 8
5. L'ville
6. MSU
7. Duke
8. Washington
Sweet 16
9. BYU
10. SanDiego State
11. Kansas
12. Notre Dame
13. Xavier
14. Arizona
15. K-St
16. Princeton


i'm least sure about Arizona & K-st - they're both 5 seeds... i could see Wisconsin, Belmont or K-St... and maybe even Utah St getting that spot in the Southwest... they're all good & all have their faults...

i don't like Princeton that much (though i do think Harvard had a case for an at-large bid). And i don't really want to put Notre Dame in there( but that is more of a i don't like Notre Dame thing).

While people say the Southwest is the easiest bracket, i think it is one of the most difficult. i already talked about the 4/5/12/13 seeds. but...
i really like St Johns, but i like BYU better. i really like BYU, but i like MSU better-slightly. i would have been content with any of those 3 in my Elite 8

i actually also would have picked Butler or Old Dominion for the Sweet 16... but they play each other, then Pit... yes, in that bracket, i rate them like this (Overall): Pit (3), MSU(5), BYU (6), Butler (11), St Johns (12), Old Dominion (14), Wisc (15), K-St (17), Belmont (20)... oh and Florida, the #2 seed (my 32).